South Africans are unlikely to see diesel prices hit R40 per litre in May, but another sharp increase remains likely based on current data. Early figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) show significant under-recoveries for diesel, although more recent trends suggest a lower increase than initially expected. The outlook is critical for Gauteng motorists and businesses already dealing with rising transport costs following April’s record fuel price hikes.
ALSO READ: Rising Bird Flu Cases Worldwide: Could South Africa Be Affected
April Price Shock Continues to Ripple
Fuel prices surged in April following a spike in global oil prices linked to conflict in the Middle East.
Despite a temporary R3-per-litre reduction in the General Fuel Levy, diesel still rose by more than R7 per litre, pushing wholesale prices in Gauteng to around R26 per litre.
Retail prices followed, with many motorists paying close to R28 to R29 per litre, depending on location.
These increases have set a high baseline ahead of the next pricing cycle.
Latest CEF Data Points to Further Increases
Mid-month projections from the Central Energy Fund show that fuel price pressures remain significant.
Current under-recoveries are estimated at:
- Petrol: R2.62 to R2.99 per litre
- Diesel: R9.05 to R9.07 per litre
While these figures are lower than earlier in the month, they still point to substantial increases if trends persist.
According to the data, diesel price increases of around R9 per litre remain possible under current conditions.
How Close is Diesel to R40 Per Litre?
If current projections hold, wholesale diesel prices could exceed R35 per litre in May.
However, a key risk factor remains the possible return of fuel levies.
If the R3-per-litre fuel levy relief is withdrawn, projected prices could rise further:
- Diesel could approach R37 to R38 per litre
- Petrol could exceed R28 to R29 per litre
While this still falls short of R40 per litre, it places diesel prices within range of that threshold under worst-case conditions.
Expected Fuel Price Changes for May
Based on current CEF projections, expected increases include:
- Petrol 93: +R2.62 per litre
- Petrol 95: +R2.99 per litre
- Diesel (0.05%): +R9.05 per litre
- Diesel (0.005%): +R9.07 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: +R7.17 per litre
These figures remain subject to change before final adjustments are confirmed.
Projected Inland Fuel Prices (May 2026)
| Fuel Type | April Price | May Projection | With Levy Reintroduced |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93 Petrol | R23.25 | R25.87 | R28.87 |
| 95 Petrol | R23.36 | R26.35 | R29.35 |
| Diesel (0.05%) | R25.90 | R34.95 | R37.95 |
| Diesel (0.005%) | R26.11 | R35.18 | R38.18 |
| Paraffin | R24.21 | R31.38 | — |
These projections illustrate how close diesel prices could move towards record levels if current conditions persist.
Oil prices Remain The Biggest Driver
The primary factor behind rising fuel costs is the global oil price.
Recent trends show:
- Oil surged above $110 per barrel during peak conflict
- Prices have eased to around $95 per barrel, but remain volatile
- Supply disruptions continue to impact global markets
According to economists, uncertainty rather than actual supply shortages is driving price swings.
Rand Weakness Adds Pressure
The rand has also contributed to fuel price increases, although to a lesser extent.
Recent movement shows:
- Pre-conflict: below R16 per dollar
- Peak volatility: above R17 per dollar
- Current level: around R16.30 per dollar
Even small currency shifts can significantly affect import costs for fuel.
The Fuel Levy Decision Will Be Critical
A major unknown remains government policy on fuel levies.
National Treasury reduced levies by R3 per litre in April, but this relief is temporary.
According to available information:
- The relief cost the fiscus R6 billion
- Treasury has indicated it may need to recover the cost
- Reintroduction could happen immediately or in phases
This decision will play a key role in determining final pump prices.
What This Means for Gauteng Residents
For Gauteng residents, rising diesel prices will have wide-ranging effects beyond fuel costs.
Higher diesel prices typically impact:
- Public transport and commuting costs
- Food and retail pricing
- Delivery and logistics services
- Small business operating expenses
Because Gauteng is heavily reliant on road transport, any increase in diesel prices tends to filter quickly into the broader cost of living.
FAQ: Fuel Price Outlook for May
Will diesel reach R40 per litre?
Not under current projections, but prices could move closer if levies return and oil prices rise.
Why are diesel increases higher than petrol?
Diesel is more sensitive to global supply disruptions and logistics costs.
What is causing the price increases?
Global oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and exchange rate movements.
When will final prices be confirmed?
At the end of April, with changes taking effect in early May.
Can prices still change?
Yes, daily CEF data is not final and may shift before official adjustments.
What Happens Next
Fuel price projections remain highly uncertain as global markets respond to geopolitical developments and currency fluctuations.
The Department of Mineral Resources and Energy is expected to confirm final fuel prices at the end of April, with implementation scheduled for early May.
Until then, Gauteng motorists and businesses face continued uncertainty as fuel costs remain closely tied to global events.
