South African motorists may soon face another sharp fuel price increase, with early forecasts showing petrol prices could rise by more than R2 per litre in June 2026. The projected increase comes just weeks after May’s major fuel hike and as National Treasury prepares to reduce temporary fuel levy relief introduced earlier this year.
Mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund suggests petrol prices are currently tracking under-recoveries of between R2.34 and R2.38 per litre, raising concerns about the growing cost of transport, food and commuting across Gauteng. Analysts warn that continued global oil volatility and rand weakness could place even more pressure on already strained households.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official June fuel price adjustment on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.
ALSO READ: Food Price Warning for South Africa as Rising Fuel Costs Hit Gauteng Households
Petrol Prices Tracking Another Sharp Increase
According to Central Energy Fund tracking data, both 93 and 95 unleaded petrol are showing significant under-recoveries ahead of June’s fuel adjustment.
Under-recovery refers to the gap between the current regulated pump price and the actual cost of importing and supplying fuel.
If current trends continue through the rest of May, motorists could face:
- Petrol increases between R2.34 and R2.38 per litre
- A second consecutive month of major fuel hikes
- Additional pressure on household transport budgets
The forecast follows the substantial R3.27 per litre petrol increase implemented in May 2026.
Economists say repeated increases within a short period can significantly affect monthly living expenses, particularly in commuter-heavy provinces such as Gauteng.
Diesel Prices Showing Mixed Outlook
The outlook for diesel remains more complicated.
Current tracking suggests:
- A potential 51c per litre decrease for 0.05% sulphur diesel
- A possible 31c per litre increase for 0.005% sulphur diesel
Despite the mixed outlook, diesel prices remain historically elevated following recent increases that pushed wholesale diesel prices above R32 per litre for the first time.
Higher diesel costs continue affecting:
- Freight and logistics
- Public transport
- Agriculture
- Food transportation
- Delivery services
Industry groups say Gauteng consumers often feel diesel increases indirectly through higher food and retail prices.
Treasury to Reduce Fuel Levy Relief in June
Another major factor behind the expected increase is National Treasury’s decision to reduce temporary fuel levy relief.
Treasury previously introduced temporary levy cuts in April 2026 to cushion motorists from rising global oil prices.
The relief included:
- R3 per litre reduction on petrol
- R3.93 per litre reduction on diesel
However, from June 2026 the relief will be reduced by half.
This means:
- Petrol levy relief drops to R1.50 per litre
- Diesel levy relief drops to R1.96 per litre
Analysts say motorists may effectively absorb both the global fuel increase and the partial return of taxes simultaneously.
Why Fuel Prices Keep Rising
Energy analysts say two major international factors are driving South Africa’s fuel price pressure.
1. Middle East Tensions and Oil Prices
The escalating Iran conflict and continued disruption concerns around the Strait of Hormuz have affected global oil markets.
Brent crude oil prices reportedly climbed from around $93 per barrel to above $101 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
2. Rand Weakness Against the US Dollar
South Africa imports much of its fuel, meaning a weaker rand increases the cost of importing oil and refined fuel products.
A weaker currency means fuel becomes more expensive before it even reaches local filling stations.
Economists say currency volatility remains one of the biggest risks to future fuel price stability.
Gauteng Residents Likely to Feel the Impact Quickly
Gauteng households are expected to feel the impact of rising fuel prices particularly strongly because of the province’s heavy dependence on road transport and long-distance commuting.
Many residents travel daily between:
- Johannesburg
- Pretoria
- Ekurhuleni
- Soweto
- Midrand
- The West Rand
Transport analysts say fuel increases can quickly affect:
- Taxi fares
- Food prices
- School transport
- Delivery costs
- Ride-hailing prices
- Household budgets
The impact may become even more visible during winter when households are already dealing with increased electricity and heating costs.
Businesses Warn About Economic Ripple Effects
Business groups and economic analysts say the effects of rising fuel prices extend far beyond motorists.
The Durban Chamber of Commerce and Industry warned that South Africa’s reliance on imported crude oil leaves the economy vulnerable to global oil shocks.
According to the Chamber, sectors likely to feel pressure include:
- Agriculture
- Manufacturing
- Retail
- Logistics
- Public transport
Economists say businesses may eventually pass rising operational costs onto consumers through higher prices.
Fuel Prices Have Increased Dramatically Over Decades
Historical data compiled by Statistics South Africa shows the long-term scale of fuel price increases nationally.
In January 1976:
- Petrol reportedly cost approximately 21.1 cents per litre
By May 2026:
- Inland petrol prices had climbed to around R26.52 per litre
This represents one of the largest long-term increases affecting South African household costs over the past five decades.
What This Means for Gauteng Residents
For Gauteng residents, another fuel increase may place additional pressure on transport costs, food prices and monthly household spending.
Commuters travelling long distances daily may be among the hardest hit, particularly residents relying on private vehicles for work and school transport.
Higher fuel costs may also indirectly affect supermarket pricing, delivery services and taxi fares across the province.
Economists warn that continued increases could place additional pressure on households already managing debt, electricity costs and rising winter expenses.
FAQ: June 2026 Fuel Price Forecast
When will the official June fuel price be announced?
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official adjustment on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.
How much could petrol increase?
Current forecasts suggest increases of between R2.34 and R2.38 per litre.
Why are fuel prices increasing again?
Global oil prices, Middle East tensions, rand weakness and reduced fuel levy relief are contributing factors.
Is fuel levy relief ending completely?
No. Treasury is reducing the relief by half rather than removing it entirely.
How could Gauteng residents be affected?
Residents may experience higher transport, food and commuting costs if fuel prices continue rising.
What Happens Next
The Central Energy Fund is expected to continue updating fuel recovery data throughout May ahead of the official fuel price announcement in early June.
Economists and transport analysts are also expected to monitor global oil markets, Middle East developments and currency movements closely as South Africa prepares for another potential fuel price adjustment.
