September Petrol Price Drop: What South Africans Can Expect at the Pump

Mid-month projections from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicate positive news for South African motorists, with both petrol and diesel set for a price reduction in September.

This anticipated drop is largely due to a combination of falling global oil prices and a slightly stronger rand against the US dollar, although currency fluctuations are still limiting full recovery. The current market dynamics have resulted in an over-recovery of fuel prices: petrol is showing an over-recovery of 8–15 cents per litre, while diesel ranges between 33 and 35 cents per litre.

Expected Fuel Price Changes

According to CEF data, the mid-month expected adjustments are as follows:

It is worth noting that LP Gas prices are not provided in the daily snapshots, so no forecast is currently available. Additionally, these mid-month projections are indicative and not final; the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announces official prices only a few days before implementation.

Global Oil Prices in Decline

Global oil prices have fallen steadily throughout August, dropping about 10% this year. Factors contributing to this decline include the US trade tariffs and policies, combined with a rapid return of OPEC+ barrels to the market.

The US-China trade situation, which had previously threatened oil demand, has seen a temporary pause, preventing an even steeper decline. However, increased oil production and dampened demand have caused prices to fall from $75 per barrel to around $66, down from a brief high of $85 in June following the Israel-Iran conflict.

This has translated locally to an over-recovery in fuel prices of approximately 16cpl for petrol and 37cpl for diesel, stabilising after last month’s diesel shortages.

Rand Strength Provides Some Relief

The rand has shown some improvement due to a weaker US dollar, benefiting fuel price adjustments. Yet, volatility remains, with currency movements still affecting price recovery by about 3 cents per litre. Positive effects include investor shifts toward safe-haven commodities like gold, which remains unaffected by US tariffs, supporting the local currency.

Domestic inflation data, expected soon, will provide further insight into the rand’s trajectory and economic stability.

What Motorists Can Expect at the Pump

Here’s a comparison of August’s official prices versus the expected September prices:

Inland:

Coastal:

While final prices are still subject to official announcement, early indications suggest that South African motorists can look forward to some relief at the pumps this September.

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