South Africans to See More Relief as Petrol Prices Expected to Drop Again in September

Rethabile Nyelele11 August , 2025

South African motorists can look forward to further relief at the pumps as early data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates a potential decrease in petrol prices for September. However, diesel prices remain under pressure, continuing a trend seen in recent months.

Positive Start for Petrol, Diesel Still Struggling

According to the CEF’s preliminary figures for the first week of August 2025, petrol prices are showing a slight over-recovery, with reductions of between 5 and 10 cents per litre projected. In contrast, diesel prices remain in negative territory, with an under-recovery of 10 to 12 cents per litre, suggesting another possible price hike for diesel users next month.

This follows a similar pattern seen in July, where petrol prices saw a modest reduction while diesel prices increased significantly. If current market conditions persist, September’s fuel price adjustments could mirror this trend.

Current Recoveries at a Glance:

Petrol 93: Decrease of 10 cents per litre
Petrol 95: Decrease of 5 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Increase of 12 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Increase of 10 cents per litre
Illuminating paraffin: Increase of 7 cents per litre

While early-month projections are not definitive, they provide a strong indication of potential price movements based on current trends.

Global Oil Prices Ease, but Rand Weakness Remains a Concern

A key factor contributing to the expected petrol price relief is the decline in global oil prices. After tensions in the Middle East escalated in mid-June driving prices to around $85 a barrel the easing of geopolitical risks has seen oil prices drop below $70 a barrel.

In August, Brent crude has traded around $66 a barrel, with further declines following OPEC+’s decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. This has raised concerns about a global oversupply, particularly as the US-China trade war continues to dampen economic growth and energy demand.

Additionally, the potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine has contributed to downward pressure on oil prices.

However, the weaker rand/dollar exchange rate is offsetting some of these gains. The CEF reports that the rand’s depreciation is currently reducing fuel price recoveries by approximately 12 cents per litre.

Rand Volatility and US Tariff Impact

The rand has been highly volatile, recently trading at R17.70 to the dollar after recovering from a low of R18.35/$ following the US’s imposition of 30% tariffs on South African exports. While the local currency has strengthened slightly due to broader US dollar weakness driven by poor US jobs data and Federal Reserve pressures economists caution that this recovery is not due to inherent rand strength.

The rand had already factored in earlier US tariffs, including the 25% levy on auto exports implemented in April. However, the full impact of the new 30% reciprocal tariffs remains uncertain, leaving room for further fluctuations.

Diesel Crunch Persists, but Gap May Stabilize

The ongoing disparity between petrol and diesel prices is narrowing but remains significant. In July, diesel supply constraints led to a sharp under recovery, resulting in a substantial price hike.

According to Bloomberg, global diesel shortages persist due to high demand from the aviation sector. A colder-than-expected northern hemisphere winter could further strain supplies. However, analysts believe the current diesel-petrol gap will likely remain steady rather than worsen in the coming months.

Outlook for September

While petrol users may welcome another price cut, diesel and paraffin consumers could face further increases. The final adjustments will depend on oil price movements and the rand’s performance in the coming weeks.

For now, South Africans can cautiously anticipate some relief in petrol costs, but diesel-dependent sectors such as transport and agriculture may need to brace for continued financial pressure.